This Is What We Thought Would Happen in 2021: Meta-Analysis of Threat Forecasting
Gert-Jan Bruggink conducts a meta-analysis on industry threat forecasts, evaluating the predictive accuracy of annual vendor cybersecurity predictions.
Summary
The Annual Industry Ritual of Threat Predictions
At the start of every year, cybersecurity vendors publish hundreds of predictive reports forecasting emerging cyber threats and attack trends for the next 12 months.
Conducting a Meta-Analysis of Global Threat Forecasts
Gert-Jan Bruggink analyzes over 100 industry prediction reports from 2021, categorizing recurring themes, hype cycles, and vendor marketing biases.
Comparing Predictions Against Real-World 2021 Intrusions
Bruggink evaluates how well predictions matched actual high-impact cyber events (such as SolarWinds fallout, Colonial Pipeline, and ProxyLogon), revealing significant forecasting blindspots.
Building Evidence-Based Threat Modeling
The author provides intelligence leaders with rigorous frameworks to filter out vendor marketing noise and base security strategies on empirical threat data.
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